BCG: Nearly half of trucks sold in Europe could be electric by 2035 as global markets diverge

China has already reached a tipping point for battery-electric trucks (BEV). In 2025, nearly 30 percent of new medium and heavy truck registrations were battery-electric, and in 2026 the share is already higher; China also accounts for more than 90 percent of all zero-emission trucks sold worldwide. In key segments — medium trucks and heavy trucks in regional transport — electric trucks have reached cost parity with diesel, helped by a relatively dense network of charging and battery-swap stations and state subsidy programs. In long-haul transport, LNG remains a stopgap for now but is likely to be pushed out by battery-electric trucks as charging infrastructure expands after 2030. Peter Wiedenhoff, managing director and partner at BCG, said: "China shows how quickly a market can change once costs, infrastructure and regulation work together. Manufacturers that scale too late there risk permanently losing market share."

Europe is only at the start of its broad ramp-up. EU rules require manufacturers to cut CO2 emissions from heavy commercial vehicles by 43 percent by 2030 and 64 percent by 2035 compared with 2019. In BCG's demand-driven scenario, battery-electric trucks would account for around 48 percent of vehicles sold in 2035; if no regulatory relief comes, manufacturers would have to raise that share to as much as 65 percent to meet their CO2 targets. The decisive hurdle is charging infrastructure: the network along the trans-European TEN-T transport corridor is growing but has so far not reached the density needed for large-scale battery-electric long-haul transport by 2030. Cost pressure is rising at the same time — Chinese suppliers can offer battery-electric heavy long-haul trucks up to 30 to 50 percent cheaper than European competitors, according to BCG.

In the United States, electrification is moving much more slowly. BCG expects cost parity with diesel for medium trucks and heavy trucks in regional transport only between 2029 and 2031, and in long-haul transport in the mid-2030s. Battery-electric and hybrid trucks together should make up less than 5 percent of new registrations in 2030. There is no nationwide zero-emission mandate, and the country has underdeveloped charging infrastructure plus differing rules and incentives from state to state. Some operators are already turning to vehicles with around 500 miles of range and megawatt charging, aiming for cost parity with diesel by the end of the 2020s, and BCG sees hybrids and plug-in hybrids as a practicable bridge until battery-electric drivetrains pay off more broadly.