BCG: European car aftermarket growth to slow to 1.7% a year through 2035
Europe's car aftermarket will grow only 1.7% a year through 2035, down from 4.7% between 2021 and 2025, as electric cars need less routine maintenance and drivers use their cars less.
- 1.7%
- 4.7%
- 343 million
- 116 billion euros
What Happened
For decades the equation was simple: more cars on European roads meant more maintenance and repair work. That model is now running out of steam, according to a new BCG study. The European automotive aftermarket is expected to grow only 1.7% a year through 2035, compared with 4.7% between 2021 and 2025. The main causes are the rise of electric vehicles, which need less routine maintenance, and slower car use.
- 4.7%
- 1.7%
- 26%, up from 4%
116billion euros
Up from 99 billion euros in 2025, with growth driven more by value than by volume.
- Europe will have 343 million vehicles in circulation in 2035, and more than one in three will be over 16 years old, against 23% in 2021.
- Cars are being driven less: kilometres travelled per vehicle per year are falling 0.6%.
- Electric vehicles will rise from 4% to 26% of the fleet by 2035, cutting aftermarket growth by 0.7 percentage points a year.
- About one third of the fleet will be equipped with ADAS by 2030, reducing the risk of collisions but making interventions more complex.
- Fleet-owned vehicles will reach 20% of the fleet in 2035, up from 8% in 2021.
- Insurers already steer about 70% of accident-related repairs, increasing pressure on independent repairers over prices and access.
Repairs will be less frequent but more complex and costly. The aftermarket should still grow, from 99 billion euros in 2025 to 116 billion euros in 2035, carried more by value than by volume. Electric vehicles create new demand around high-voltage systems and thermal management, while the spread of ADAS makes interventions harder.
The transition will move at different speeds across Europe. Northern and Western Europe, where electric vehicles are most established, should come under pressure on maintenance and repair volumes first, with significant declines likely after 2030. Southern and Eastern Europe will evolve more slowly but in the same direction.
Why this matters
Slower growth forces repair shops, parts suppliers and dealers to shift from selling volume to selling value. Independent garages face extra pressure because insurers steer most accident repairs and fleet ownership is rising. The shift will be felt first in Northern and Western Europe, where electric vehicles are most widespread.
Terms in This Story
- après-vente (aftermarket)
- The market for maintenance, repair, parts and services for vehicles after they have been sold.
- ADAS
- Advanced driver assistance systems: electronic features that help drivers avoid collisions or reduce their severity.
- flottes (fleets)
- Groups of vehicles owned or managed by a single organisation, such as a company or rental firm.
- systèmes haute tension (high-voltage systems)
- Electrical components in electric vehicles that operate at high voltage and require specialist handling and repair.
Summarised from the linked release; details can be imperfect — always verify against the original source.